India’s weather pattern could shift again by the weekend, with the India Meteorological Department indicating that El Nino conditions may reassert themselves after a key cloud band weakens. The current setup has been supporting intense rainfall over Kolkata and other parts of east India.
According to the forecast, the monsoon convergence zone now driving heavy rain may begin to fragment by July 31. If that cloud band dissipates as expected, the broader atmospheric support for sustained rainfall is likely to weaken.
That change could allow El Nino to have a stronger effect on rainfall over the region. In practical terms, it may curb the ongoing wet spell and reduce the intensity or spread of rain in eastern parts of the country.
The update points to a near-term transition in conditions rather than a fixed outcome, with rainfall patterns depending on how quickly the cloud band breaks up. For Kolkata and east India, the focus remains on whether the present monsoon setup holds or gives way to a drier El Nino influence.
