Election analyst Sir John Curtice says Labour appears to be benefiting from a modest improvement in the polls, sometimes described as a Burnham bounce, but the uplift does not look especially large. The governing party's ratings have improved, yet it is still only just ahead of Reform in the latest picture described.
One reason for the shift is that Labour is now losing fewer of its 2024 voters to Reform after Nigel Farage's recent difficulties. That suggests some soft support may be returning or, at least, that the flow of former Labour voters towards Reform has eased.
However, the same pattern is also affecting the Conservatives. They too are seeing less support leak to Reform than during the earlier period referenced in the polling trend. That matters because it means Labour is not enjoying a clear, stand-alone surge while its rivals remain stuck.
Taken together, the numbers point to a limited recovery rather than a dramatic turnaround. Labour may have steadied its position, but with only a narrow advantage over Reform, the overall polling picture still looks competitive and unsettled.
