Geological evidence is raising fresh doubts about a long-standing idea in ocean science: that Agulhas Leakage is a major driver of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC. That leakage refers to warm, salty Indian Ocean water that moves around the southern tip of Africa and enters the Atlantic.
For years, researchers have treated this water transfer south of South Africa as an important contributor to the Atlantic’s large-scale circulation system. Because AMOC helps move heat and salt through the ocean, the link between Agulhas Leakage and Atlantic circulation has been seen as a key part of the global conveyor system.
The new evidence, however, suggests that the influence of Agulhas Leakage may not be as strong or as direct as many scientists have assumed. By questioning that connection, the findings could reshape how researchers think about the factors that sustain or alter AMOC over long periods of time.
The broader significance lies in how scientists interpret past ocean changes and build expectations for future circulation shifts. If Agulhas Leakage plays a smaller role than previously believed, researchers may need to look more closely at other processes affecting Atlantic Ocean circulation.
