Kalshi traders are signaling limited confidence that the United States and Iran will reach a nuclear agreement in the near term. As of early Sunday, the prediction market put the odds of a deal before January 2027 at 29%.
That market view came even after President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran were set to hold negotiation talks on Monday. The pricing suggests that, for now, traders do not see the announcement as enough to make a breakthrough look likely.
A 29% probability means market participants still see a much higher chance that no agreement will be completed within that timeframe. Prediction markets often move with new diplomatic developments, but the latest reading points to continued caution around the prospects for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.
For now, the Kalshi market reflects skepticism that talks alone will quickly produce an agreement. Unless negotiations show clearer progress, traders appear to be betting that a deal remains a longer-term possibility rather than an imminent outcome.
