A new RAND Corporation commentary argues that Ukraine has regained an edge against Russia through a strategy of attrition rather than a search for a single decisive breakthrough. The piece, by Gian Gentile and Andrew Radin and originally published in The Hill, presents the war as a contest in which sustained pressure can matter more than dramatic short-term shifts.
In this reading, Ukraine’s winning strategy against Russia is built on wearing down Russian strength over time. A war of attrition focuses on reducing an opponent’s ability to keep fighting, making endurance, resource use and steady battlefield pressure central to the broader balance of the conflict.
The analysis suggests that judging momentum only by visible territorial change can miss the larger strategic picture. By emphasizing attrition, the authors argue that Ukraine’s position can improve even without a rapid, headline-making offensive, as long as Russia is being steadily weakened and forced to absorb continuing costs.
The commentary adds to the wider debate over how the war should be measured and understood. Rather than framing success only in terms of immediate breakthroughs, Gentile and Radin point to attrition as the framework they believe explains how Ukraine has regained the upper hand against Russia.
