Global oil markets are beginning to look beyond the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran still holds major leverage over the critical shipping lane. The narrow waterway remains central to Gulf crude flows today, but the broader market is increasingly focused on how quickly other export routes can reduce that dependence.
According to the outlook cited in the report, added pipeline capacity across the Middle East could offset most of the region’s pre-war export volumes that currently rely on Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimated that by the end of 2028, enough infrastructure could be in place to shield about 75% of those shipments from disruption tied to the strait.
That shift would be significant for traders, producers and energy-importing countries that have long treated Hormuz as one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. If more crude can move through overland systems instead of tankers passing through contested waters, the global market would be better positioned to absorb regional tensions.
At the same time, the transition is not immediate. The title of the report suggests ships have been unwilling to embrace a U.S.-backed alternate route, underscoring how difficult it is to reroute energy trade in the short term. For now, Hormuz remains vital, but the longer-term direction points to a post-Iran oil market that is less exposed to a single maritime bottleneck.
