Goldman analysts say diesel is now at the center of a widening fuel supply squeeze, with pressure building across global energy markets. The bank’s note points to a sharp drop in refinery activity, highlighting that seasonal refinery runs have fallen to their lowest level since the Covid era.
A key driver appears to be conflict-related outages affecting Russia and the Gulf, two important parts of the global fuel system. When refinery operations are disrupted in major producing regions, supplies of refined products can tighten quickly, and diesel is often among the most sensitive fuels.
That matters because diesel is widely used in freight, shipping, construction and industry, making it a critical fuel for the broader economy. If refinery runs stay weak while outages continue, the imbalance could keep diesel markets under strain even if crude supply itself is less affected.
The Goldman view underscores a broader concern in energy trading: the issue is not only crude availability, but also the ability to turn crude into usable fuels. With refinery output under pressure, diesel has emerged as the clearest sign of the current supply squeeze.
