Expected inflows under the FCNR(B) deposit programme are now likely to come in at about $50 billion to $55 billion, according to HDFC Bank CEO, marking a step down from earlier projections of $60 billion to $80 billion. The revised view points to softer mobilisation than first anticipated through this non-resident deposit route.
A key reason for the lower estimate is tax-related complexity for non-residents, which appears to be affecting how much money can be brought in under the scheme. The updated assessment suggests that earlier expectations did not fully account for the impact of taxation on these deposits.
The outlook has also been weighed down by tighter liquidity in West Asia. Regional conflict-driven restrictions and pressure on available funds in that market are seen as limiting the pace of inflows, reducing the room for the programme to meet the more optimistic forecasts made at the outset.
Even with the downgrade, the programme is still expected to attract substantial deposits. But the latest estimate highlights how external conditions, including tax treatment and regional liquidity stress, are shaping the final flow of funds into FCNR(B) accounts.
