Goldman Sachs has flagged a sharp upside risk for oil prices, saying Brent crude could climb to $120 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. The warning puts fresh focus on one of the most important routes for global energy shipments, where any prolonged interruption can quickly tighten supply expectations.
The bank’s outlook highlights how sensitive crude markets remain to geopolitical stress in the Middle East. Because the Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of seaborne oil flows, concerns over shipping delays or reduced transit can push traders to price in a stronger risk premium.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs did not present $120 as its main forecast. Its base-case view assumes tensions in the region ease rather than worsen, allowing Brent to average about $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter. That suggests the bank still sees the current spike scenario as conditional on sustained disruption rather than the most likely outcome.
The contrast between the upside risk and the base case underlines the uncertainty facing energy markets. For businesses, investors and consumers, the key issue is whether supply routes through Hormuz remain stable, because that will play a major role in determining whether oil prices cool or move sharply higher in the months ahead.
